Facebook Will Disappear in 8 Years!
“In five to eight years they are going to disappear in the way that Yahoo has disappeared”, said Eric Jackson, the founder of Ironfire Capital, last week on CNBC’s Squawk on the Street. "Yahoo is still making money, it's still profitable, still has 13,000 employees working for it, but it's 10 percent of the value that it was at the height of 2000. For all intents and purposes, it's disappeared."
At the end of April, Jackson wrote an article for Forbes about why he thinks Google and Facebook might completely disappear in the next 5 years. In that article, he predicted that there will be a trend shift from Web 2.0 (Social) to Mobile; a change that Facebook and Google is not ready for. “The failed history of Web 1.0 companies adapting to the world of social suggests that Facebook will be as woeful at adapting to social mobile as Google has been with its “ghost town” Google+ initiative last year”. In his blog, Marc Cuban also seems to agree with Jackson’s analysis, saying “Mobile is going to crush Facebook. The logic for Facebook’s price decline is that they have a problem in mobile. They can’t offer all the games they can in a browser. They can’t offer the same ads or branding opportunities. All true.”
Jackson explained, there have been three generations of web companies. The first generation was born in 1994 to 2001, which is usually called as Web 1.0 or the portal generation. The companies that belong to Web 1.0 are Yahoo!, AOL, Google, Amazon, and eBay. Then Web 2.0 was born, or sometimes called the social web generation; the web generation for sites like Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn. Will there be a Web 3.0? No, not really, because the web will be dead! The next generation will only focus on mobile; they view smart phones as the primary platform for their application. "When you look over these three generations, no matter how successful you are in one generation, you don't seem to be able to translate that into success in the second generation, no matter how much money you have in the bank, no matter how many smart PhDs you have working for you", added Jackson.
I am pretty much agreeing with Mr. Jackson. In my opinion, even though Facebook has tried to implement a mobile app to its platform, the app still does not work effectively as for example Instagram, which really focuses on using online mobile. Based on my personal experience, the Facebook app on my android phone has not worked effectively since I updated it; most of the time it won’t reload or even crash, and I hate it so much! (Anyone has the same problem maybe?).
You may agree or disagree, but as what Eric Jackson said, "Facebook can buy a bunch of mobile companies, but they are still a big, fat website and that's different from a mobile app”. I think he knows what he is talking about!
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12 June 2013 / 13 June 2013