Cowboys looking forward: 2010 predictions (2)

Wed 30 December 2009 11:00, Roy Huiskes

Cowboys looking forward: 2010 predictions (2)

2009 is almost over. We have been looking back (through for example our top ten of 2009) and, like many others, we also look forward. In three posts, divided over three days, searchcowboys writers will predict 2010.

What will be hot and what will be not? Can we expect a growth of Bing? Will Google fall down? The cowboys will tell you. In this second post Jon Myers, Roy Huiskes and Barry Adams give us their views on 2010.

Jon Myers
I have a few thoughts about next year, first one is "2010 will again not be the year of mobile search!" for the last 4 years people have said it will be and every year this is not the case. We are getting closer but the population still does not browse the Internet enough on mobile let alone purchase items via mobile commerce so business are not really investing in websites in this space and until they do we have stalemate. But maybe the route is "2010 is the year of mobile apps?" as now all mobile networks except T-Mobile have the I-Phone and in the UK even Tesco is selling it!

In the world of Search Engines Google will continue to dominate the space but with the Yahoo and Bing deal going through, Bing will steal some market share back from Google in Europe with Index improvements that they are making on the quality of the results and rolling out some more of the US features in Bing which are nice and people are still not fully aware of (sense a blog post here in Jan :)).

SEO will continue to see focus and growth for marketeers in big brands in 2010 as it did in 2009 and this will go hand in hand with analytics focus to show true accountability and performance from SEO, this will see more "performance" type deals undertaken by SEO's changing the market dynamic.

Browsers!!! 2010 is where browser war starts again, Google have spent a fortune on Chrome advertising recently and own around 75% of Firefox nas a business. Microsoft still own the market with Explorer at around 63% but I feel there will be a big focus by Google to reduce that marketshare in 2010.

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Roy Huiskes

In 2009 we saw the rise of Analytics. This made sure we all spend are euro's within the right channels. In 2010 search will start to change, since we don't see it as an vertical channel anymore but more on the overall part. Think of Search as the last resort for users and the result of all your other campaigns as well. This way we're still continue to be a very important part of the advertising funnel. For Bing and Google the shift won't be as much on the technological part, but more on the social part of things. Behavior of the user is getting more and more important and so is Intention of course.

SEO's need to be more focused on the wider marketing overview instead of only the search engines, sociology, how target audiences behave and search and community management. This to keep up with the progress the engines are making. Of course you still need to know your tips and tricks and use your toolbox.

Maybe 2010 will be the year that there will be a big turnover from 'keyword' to 'intention'. Think, for example of the integration of Social Search, Augmented Reality, Location Based Services. The search-box is losing it's importance in the search for more relevance, especially if you look at the development within the search engines. The engines need to create new markets to keep their shareholders happy...

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Barry Adams

Privacy will erode further. Governments will confusedly see privacy and security as incompatible, bend to the demands of copyright lobbyists, and act on their misguided beliefs that the public needs to be protected from 'undesirable content' (which is whatever they define it to be). Companies will continue to harvest and mine people's online data in the name of personalization and relevant advertising. Privacy lobby groups like the Open Rights Group and the EFF will fight hard to protect our digital rights, but without massive support from educated consumers they will inevitably fail.

Microsoft will continue its comeback. Bing turned out to be a pretty good search engine, and with an integrated and matured Wolfram|Alpha knowledge engine it'll continue to attract more users. Windows 7 turned out to be a pretty good operating system, and it'll help redeem Microsoft's credibility. A web version of MS Office will be launched to compete with Google Docs, and while it'll initially be buggy it willl have better features.

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Tomorrow: Dennis Sievers, Martijn Beijk and Sam Murray

Missed yesterday's? Check out Lisa Myers, Eduard Blacqueire Evert Veldhuijzen and Peter Young here!


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